2008 US Election number crunching

I’ve crunched some state-level voting figures, making some comparisons with 2004. What surprises me most is that for all the discussion on new voter registrations, the overall number of votes cast in the 2008 US Presidential election is about 5,000,000 LESS than in 2004. This appears mainly due to 3,000,000 fewer votes cast in California. (With Obama winning California by over 2.4 million, this represents Republican Party meltdown there.)

Overall USA turnout was 65.1%, up from 63.8% in 2004.

While all states except Wyoming reporting increased voter registrations in 2008, at an average of 23% more then 2004, the big payoff for Obama here we key states Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio. The margin of victory was good all these states, but not colossal as some pundits had predicted from new voter registration figures alone.

Based on a table of figures that I’ve updated, here are some “top 10” lists, for what they’re worth. NB: Underlying figures are not final, but I do not expect any rank order to change.

TOP 10 OBAMA VOTE:

   1. CA: 6,219,123
   2. NY: 4,347,360
   3. FL: 4,103,638
   4. TX: 3,521,164
   5. IL: 3,293,340
   6. PA: 3,184,807
   7. MI: 2,867,680
   8. OH: 2,673,958
   9. NC: 2,123,334
  10. NJ: 2,073,934

TOP 10 MCCAIN VOTE:

   1. TX: 4,467,748
   2. FL: 3,908,736
   3. CA: 3,777,314
   4. PA: 2,584,119
   5. NY: 2,573,368
   6. OH: 2,469,544
   7. NC: 2,109,281
   8. MI: 2,044,405
   9. GA: 2,022,406
  10. IL: 1,975,801

TOP 10 OBAMA WINS (2008 MARGIN):

   1. CA: 2,441,809
   2. NY: 1,783,992
   3. IL: 1,317,539
   4. MI: 823,275
   5. MA: 786,799
   6. PA: 600,688
   7. MD: 535,830
   8. NJ: 533,027
   9. WI: 412,293
  10. CT: 337,551

TOP 10 MCCAIN WINS (2008 MARGIN):

   1. TX: 946,584
   2. OK: 457,359
   3. AK: 452,231
   4. TN: 394,351
   5. LA: 366,622
   6. KY: 299,084
   7. UT: 253,726
   8. AR: 214,623
   9. GA: 211,208
  10. KS: 185,562

TOP REPUBLICAN-TO-DEMOCRAT SWINGS (2008-2004 VOTE):

   1. FL: 585,880
   2. IN: 536,590
   3. NC: 449,370
   4. VA: 417,381
   5. OH: 323,015
   6. CO: 241,902
   7. IA: 150,791
   8. NV: 141,396
   9. NM: 125,981

TOP 10 OBAMA VOTE GAINS (2008-2004 VOTE):

   1. CA: 1,206,150
   2. IL: 771,935
   3. TX: 747,629
   4. MI: 657,838
   5. FL: 585,880
   6. IN: 536,590
   7. PA: 456,440
   8. NC: 449,370
   9. NY: 432,279
  10. VA: 417,381

TOP OBAMA VOTE LOSSES (2008-2004 VOTE):

   1. AR: -111,678
   2. LA: -84,752
   3. TN: -46,453
   4. OK: -1,533

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